• 2027 most likely to become hottest year ever
• El Nino may impact monsoon, bring droughts to southern provinces; can cause 451,000 extra deaths
ISLAMABAD: With 2027 likely to become the hottest year due to the cumulative effects of global warming and El Nino, Pakistan is in uncharted waters, as this weather pattern could push the country toward food insecurity and extreme temperatures.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and climate scientists, a very strong El Nino increases the likelihood of significant shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns across the globe, including Pakistan, whose southern provinces can experience drought-like conditions.
The global mean surface temperature has already increased by 1.4°C since the pre-industrial era, but this “super El Nino”, with its natural warming, could add 0.3°C to this number, pushing surface temperatures to 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels.
The World Food Programme noted El Nino is set to sharply increase hunger, with 274 million people in 45 countries forecast to be acutely food insecure by 2027-end — 49 million more than today.
World Health Organisation’s Teresa Zakaria also branded it “a significant public health threat” and a “risk multiplier”. “The most severe impacts will be experienced while climate shocks intersect with weak health systems, limited access to healthcare, food insecurity, displacement and humanitarian crisis,” she warned, urging immediate action.
‘Gigantic El Nino’
Dr Fahad Saeed, a leading climate scientist at Berlin-based Climate Analytics, compared the current ‘gigantic El Nino’ to the one in 1877-78, the “most severe on record”, that caused millions of deaths.
“Such an intense event may impact the monsoon patterns and bring droughts, particularly in southern provinces,” said Dr Saeed. “But it is not clearly written on the horizon,” he said, pointing to multiple factors that can influence rainfall.
The WMO said it may peak towards the end of the year, with scientists suggesting that its impact will last well into 2027.
Dr Regina Rodrigues, professor of physical oceanography and climate at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil, said not every event is the same — they start, peak, and end at different times.
She said they usually start around June-July and peak around December-February, but the current event is unusually strong, so it is difficult to pinpoint its peak or strength. “…What I expect for 2027 is that it will be the warmest year on record if El Nino continues as it generally does. The impact on several places is also harder in the second half — a lot of extreme events happen in the second half of El Nino,” she said.
Pakistan has already received below-normal monsoon rainfall in June (19 per cent deficit), July (11pc), and August (23pc), according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department. This outlook was not surprising, because multiple studies point to increased monsoon rainfall variability and extremes. How El Nino will impact next year’s rainfall is uncertain at this point, but historical trends suggest South Asia experiences dry spells during such periods.
Heat and droughts
Dr Ali Mirchi and Dr Arfan Arshad, who authored an important study on 2022 floods, said rainfall during El Nino has not followed a “completely consistent pattern” in Pakistan.
“Historically, El Nino has generally been associated with weaker summer monsoon rainfall, but it does not mean that every El Nino year is dry. A Pakistan Meteorological Department study examining rainfall from 1951 to 2012 found that eight out of 11 El Nino events were associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall. However, three El Nino years — 1977, 1994 and 1997 — experienced above-normal rainfall,” they said, adding that the data shows that El Nino increases the likelihood of a weaker monsoon, but it is “not a guarantee of drought”.
For Dr Saeed, one of the major consequences of warmer temperatures driven by El Nino could be deadly heat waves in the southern districts of Pakistan. He referred to the deadly heat waves of 2015, 2016 and 2024 (all El Nino years), saying that most of the deaths due to heat in Pakistan were not counted. Over 1,000 people reportedly died in the 2015 heatwave.
If heat conditions persisted, it could impact agriculture, said Dr Saeed. For instance, the country’s worst modern drought ran from 1999 to 2002, with agricultural output hit hardest in 2000-01 and significant migration out of Sindh and Balochistan. It followed the 1997-98 El Nino but coincided largely with La Nina conditions, which shows how indirectly ENSO (El Nino–Southern Oscillation) can translate into drought on the ground.
Becoming frequent
Dr Rodrigues noted that climate models show that strong El Nino events were becoming frequent. The period between two strong El Nino events used to be around 15 years (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 events), but it was then reduced to nine years when we had the 2023-24 El Nino. “And now we are having another really strong El Nino, and it’s been only three years since. This is exactly what climate models forecast: increased frequency and stronger events,” she added.
As scientists point to a possibility of an increase in such events, experts urged the government to take a proactive approach to deal with any eventuality arising out of these natural climate variations that can adversely impact agriculture through droughts and floods.
451,000 deaths
This year’s El Nino weather pattern could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February as it turbocharges global temperatures, according to projections published on Wednesday, according to AFP.
The Sahel region in Africa could have an additional 66,800 heat deaths compared to a normal year, with nearly half of that number in Nigeria alone. An additional 19,300 are projected in Indonesia and 19,400 in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. The toll could reach 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
Published in Dawn, September 24th, 2026
No comments yet. Be the first to comment!