24 September 2026
Kart-e-Char, Kabul, Afghanistan

Estefano Gomez

Articles by Estefano Gomez

UAE resumes full air traffic as Iran airspace closure odds fall

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The “Iran closes its airspace by May 8” market is currently priced at 16.5% YES, down from 24% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the “Iran closes its airspace by May 31” mar...

Israel-Iran energy conflict escalates, potential Iran airspace closure looms

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Iran Airspace Closure market shows a current price of 16.5% YES for May 8, down from 24% a day ago, and 39% YES for May 31, up from 38%. The WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026 marke�...

US to cut troop presence in Germany, signaling potential de-escalation with Iran

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” is currently assessing a decreased likelihood, with the recent news suggesting a shift in military focus. The “US Decla...

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 2026 remains unlikely amid stalled diplomacy

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire markets, a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, is considered unlikely, with activity reflecting a low probability. The June 30, 2026, ceasefire market sho�...

Iran internet blackout hits 65 days amid US and Israeli military tensions

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the market for Iran closing its airspace by May 8, the current pricing is 14.5% YES, down from 24% in the last 24 hours. The probability of Iran’s regime falling by June 30 is...

China blocks Meta’s $2B Manus AI deal amid US-China tech tensions

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Meta Platforms stock price predictions market currently shows a 100% YES outcome for Meta reaching $740 in the week of April 27, 2026. There is no observable change in sub-market �...

Iran executes political prisoner amid international scrutiny on human rights

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for “Iran leadership change by December 31” currently prices a 33.5% YES probability, down from 36% a day prior. The “fall of the Iranian regime by May 31” sits ...

China defies US sanctions, complicates Trump visit and Iran deal talks

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Trump Visit to China” market, YES pricing is at 94% for May 31 and 97% for June 30. The “US-Iran Nuclear Deal” market currently shows a 14.5% YES probability for a ...

Iran conflict escalates, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts oil supply

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Iran’s enriched uranium surrender market shows a decrease in YES pricing, with the December 31, 2026, odds at 32.5% (down from 34% 24 hours ago). Meanwhile, the WTI Crude Oil mar...

Iran rejects US proposal, reduces odds of near-term diplomatic meeting

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting: The market is currently observing decreased odds for an imminent meeting, with recent developments suggesting a hardline stance from Iran. The YE�...


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