AMD’s market cap crossed $500 billion in after-hours trading, and the Polymarket contract on NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 92.5% YES, unchanged from yesterday. ...
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir in Islamabad to discuss regional peace efforts. The Who Will Meet with Iran by April 30 market sits at 1.9% YES, d...
Israel bombed Lebanon despite a ceasefire, citing Hezbollah rocket attacks. The odds of an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026, are at 100% YES, unchanged despite the news. The strike un�...
An analyst claims Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 would be a “near-unprecedented” event. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 sits at 15% YES, with traders pricing ...
Apple confirmed John Ternus as its next CEO, and the Next CEO of Apple market has effectively resolved at 100% YES for Ternus becoming CEO by December 31. Ternus’s confirmation previously drove a 3...
Al-Iraqchi, Iran’s lead diplomat, is set to return to Islamabad, potentially reigniting indirect US-Iran ceasefire talks. The market for the UK striking Iran by April 30 sits at 0.9% YES, down fro...
Israeli airstrikes struck southern Lebanon, raising questions about the 2026 ceasefire. The Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire market sits at 100¢ YES, with no recent trades. Market reactio...
An Israeli raid on Safad Al-Batikh in southern Lebanon, reported by @FirstSquawk, raises questions about the durability of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. The market for a ceasefire by June 30 sits a�...
USS Rafael Peralta confronted an Iranian-flagged vessel as part of the U.S. naval blockade, and the market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 sits at 15% YES, with traders �...
Iranian fighter jets allegedly struck U.S. bases in Kuwait, causing extensive damage. The Iran military action by April 30 market now sits at 100% YES. Market reaction Every sub-market within the�...