An IDF drone killed a Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon, and the odds of Israel withdrawing from Lebanon by April 30 are at 0.3% YES on Polymarket. The strike, combined with overnight attacks o�...
The Series A extension was led by ParaFi and Reciprocal Ventures, with Coinbase Ventures and more than 20 customer founders joining the round. Blockworks closed a Series A extension at a $192 million�...
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have formed the BeYachad alliance to oppose Prime Minister Netanyahu, with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sitting at roughly 15% YES odds. The allia�...
Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz only after the war concludes and with guarantees against resumption. The US-Iran ceasefire market for April 30 is at 2.9% YES, down from 18% a week �...
Ukraine’s drone strikes into Russian territory have surpassed expectations with deep incursions and significant damage. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 0.2% YES. Market reaction The Apr...
Middle Eastern energy disruptions are pushing WTI crude oil price expectations higher, with the WTI crude oil for April 2026 market pricing in a potential spike to $160 as geopolitical tensions squee�...
Iran’s internet shutdown has reached 60 days, compounding economic and social disruption. The market for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 7.5% YES, slightly down from 8% a day ago. T...
A civilian contractor associated with the Israeli Defense Ministry was killed in southern Lebanon, an event with potential implications for Polymarket’s ceasefire-related contracts. The Israel x Hez...
Donald Trump is weighing an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing oil market tensions. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 sits at 0.2% YES. The prospect of de-esca�...
The U.S. is exporting natural gas at full capacity, unable to meet the demand spike caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure. The WTI Crude Oil market for hitting $160 in April sits at 0.2% YES. Marke�...