Iran’s decision to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after briefly reopening it has traders reconsidering the likelihood of a US blockade lift. Odds for Trump announcing the blockade’s...
Iran’s military accused the US of attacking an Iranian commercial ship, escalating tensions. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 is at 8.5% YES, up from 4% yesterday. Market react...
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has labeled an attack on a commercial ship as aggression. The market for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 1.5% YES, up from 2% yesterday. Market reaction ...
Iran’s foreign ministry stated that removing nuclear reserves was never a negotiation option. Odds for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 1.5% , up from 2% yesterday. The statement mo...
Iran has declared that transferring enriched uranium has never been an option, and the market for the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 sits at 0% YES. This statement directly affect�...
Bitcoin is trading at $75K, up about 24% from its bear market low, but strong selling pressure and exchange inflows suggest the rally may not hold. The market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April �...
Iran has not committed to attending the next round of US-led talks in Pakistan, following a US naval blockade and the seizure of an Iranian cargo ship. The market on whether no qualifying diplomatic �...
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman rejected any deadlines on national interests and warned the U.S. and Israel of military retaliation. The probability of a ceasefire by April 30 has dropped to 34.5%...
Israeli forces have uncovered an Iranian Revolutionary Guards terror network aiming to sabotage a strategic oil pipeline. The odds for an attack on the Kharg Island oil terminal by April 30 are now a�...
Israel’s military warned Lebanese civilians against returning to villages in southern Lebanon, citing Hezbollah ceasefire violations. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100%...