Iran faces major reconstruction costs after the Twelve-Day War, pushing leaders toward negotiations on sanctions relief. The market for Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April sits at 36.5% �...
Trump’s ultimatum to the Fed chair injects uncertainty as Bitcoin hovers at $75,000. Bitcoin above $58,000 by April 14 is at 100% YES. The market for Bitcoin staying above $58,000 is priced at 10...
Russia’s latest air assault on Kyiv and Odesa killed 17 people, pushing ceasefire odds lower. The ceasefire by May 31, 2026 market now sits at 5% YES, down from 6% yesterday. Market reaction The...
Field Marshal Asim Munir’s visit to Tehran to facilitate new US-Iran talks has the possibility of a ceasefire by April 21 priced at 10.5% YES. The April 21 ceasefire market sits at 10.5% YES, w...
Ukraine secured fresh aid pledges for drones, air defense, and logistics at the Ramstein summit. The ceasefire by April 30, 2026, market is at 1.8% YES, down from 2% a week ago. Market reaction N�...
Israel’s military operations in southern Lebanon are intensifying the 2026 Lebanon war, with the Polymarket contract on military action in Greater Beirut by April 1 priced at 100% YES. Market rea...
Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro have killed 12 people, pushing the probability of a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, down to 1.8% YES from 2% a week ago. Market reaction �...
Saudi Arabia’s NEOM has launched a new trade route linking Europe to the Gulf that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz ship transit market currently prices YES at a 15% expected decr...
Miner reserves have dropped by 61K BTC since the cycle began. Bitcoin staying above $62,000 on April 17 is at 99.9% YES. Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Core Scientific are offloading Bitcoi�...
The Fed’s April 2026 Beige Book describes slight to modest growth, with energy costs surging due to the Iran War. The likelihood of the Fed following a CutPausePause pattern by April is 0% . Marke...