24 September 2026
Kart-e-Char, Kabul, Afghanistan

Estefano Gomez

Articles by Estefano Gomez

Crypto market hit by $560M in liquidations amid US-Iran tensions

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot The “Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?” market shows a current YES pricing at 0.1%, down from 3% 24 hours ago, and 58% seven days ago. The “Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in A...

Trump rejects Iranian demands, lowers US war declaration likelihood

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Iranian Demands in April” market, the likelihood of a YES outcome has decreased, with recent pricing suggesting resistance to Iranian demands. The “US Decla...

Trump signs order to expedite psychedelic treatments for veterans

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for “Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?” is currently priced at 6.5% YES, down from 8% a week ago. The April 30, 2026, sub-market remai...

USS Gerald R. Ford leaves Middle East, signaling reduced US military presence

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot US Forces Enter Iran market is currently priced with a NO-leaning indication, reflective of a de-escalation scenario following the USS Gerald R. Ford’s departure. Strait of Hormu...

Libya boosts oil output amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz Traffic market is currently not reporting a definitive YES or NO outcome. The recent news has implications for ongoing shipping disruptions, with potential effect�...

Trump ends Iran operations, reducing US invasion likelihood

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Trump Out as President by April 30” market, the YES pricing is at 0.1%, unchanged from 24 hours ago, with no time remaining. The “US Invasion of Iran” market shows ...

Trump, Putin discuss Ukraine ceasefire, potential easing of Russia sanctions

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot Russia x Ukraine ceasefire market is priced at 9.5% YES, up from 8% a week ago. This market shows moderate volume, with a 1-point fluctuation noted recently. ## Key Takeaways – R...

Trump dissatisfied with Iran’s peace proposal, ceasefire prospects dim

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot The US-Iran ceasefire market currently shows a 0.1% probability for a YES outcome, down from 1% a day ago. In the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting market, the outcome remains uncer�...

EU labels US unreliable amid auto tariffs, impacting Greenland acquisition odds

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Acquisition of Greenland” market, the current pricing suggests a decreased likelihood of a YES outcome due to recent geopolitical tensions. The odds have move...

Trump vows to counter nuclear ambitions amid Iran tensions

Crypto May 2, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026, is currently priced at 22% YES, down from 24% 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the market for the US obtaining Iranian enric�...


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