Bitcoin funding rates are at historically low levels, suggesting a market bottom as heavy short positioning raises the risk of a short squeeze. The likelihood of Bitcoin staying above $60,000 in Apri�...
The Pentagon is adapting tactics used against Caribbean drug traffickers to target Iran’s fast-attack fleet. Kharg Island control by April 30 sits at 2.9% YES, down from 4% yesterday. The April 3...
Trump’s ambiguous comments on US-Iran talks have rattled Bitcoin markets, with the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April priced at 100% YES. Traders are reacting to Trump’s “prob...
The US-Gulf security-for-finance arrangement faces new tensions as the Iran war escalates. The probability of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 2.1% YES, reflecting traders’ skeptic...
Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 38% YES on Polymarket, up from 34% a week ago, as major banks push further into Bitcoin ETF products. Market reaction Morgan Stanley launch�...
At least eight vessels have crossed the US naval blockade line in recent days, heading toward Iranian ports or preparing to load Iranian cargo. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to nor�...
A senior Israeli official says the US plans to take a more active role in disarming Hezbollah in Lebanon. The market for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100% YES. Both the�...
Israel confirmed a self-defense carve-out under the Lebanon ceasefire. The Ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market is�...
Trump’s three-word jab at Eric Swalwell connects to serious allegations around the former congressman. The Eric Swalwell market on Polymarket sits at 100% YES for his departure by May 31, with 45 da...
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to use all economic tools against those backing Iran’s “terrorist activities,” following discussions with Britain’s finance minister. The ma...