Al Jazeera is reporting that both Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in limited ceasefire violations, yet the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market holds at 100% YES for a stable ceasefire by June 30.�...
Emirates NBD is pursuing the first Gulf public debt sale since the Iran war began, and the Polymarket contract for Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 has dropped to 1.9% YES, down �...
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have formed a new political alliance aimed at unseating Netanyahu’s government, with the odds of Netanyahu being out by June 30 at 5.5% YES. The alliance, called �...
Two rejections at the $80K level in a single week, yet massive ETF inflows and a historically bullish April suggest the story isn't over. Bitcoin tried to break $80K twice in the past seven days. Bot�...
The US-Iran conflict has intensified, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent crude over $100 per barrel, while the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April trades at 25%�...
Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem denounced Beirut’s peace talks with Israel in Washington as humiliating, while the group released footage of a drone strike on IDF troops. The Israel-H...
Iran’s Foreign Minister criticized the US in talks with Russia’s Putin, citing “destructive habits” and “unreasonable demands” as barriers to diplomacy. The market for no US-Iran diplomati...
Iran’s Foreign Minister accused the US of obstructing diplomatic efforts, citing “destructive habits” and “unreasonable demands.” The odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have dropped ...
Iran’s foreign minister told Putin that U.S. tactics are blocking diplomatic progress. The Polymarket contract for no US-Iran meeting by June 30 trades at 16.7% YES, up from 9% yesterday. Market ...
Yadollah Javani of the IRGC asserts the US can’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz through military force. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 17.5% YES, down from 20% yesterd...