Ukrainian Prime Minister’s Washington visit spurred reconstruction talks, pushing the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market to 5.9% YES, up from 5% a week ago. Market reaction The ceasefire ...
President Pezeshkian has commended Pakistan’s mediation efforts in the US-Iran conflict. The market for a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 is at 9.0% YES, down from 33% a week ago. Pezes...
Roberto Sánchez has accused Rafael López Aliaga of avoiding legal scrutiny for inflammatory remarks. López Aliaga’s chances of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 14.5% YES, ...
Israeli UN envoy Danny Danon warned that Israel would react if threatened, adding friction to already strained Israel-Iran relations. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, market sits a�...
Trump dismissed rising inflation reports during comments from Las Vegas, and the prediction market for his upcoming Fox Business interview has shifted, with odds of him mentioning economic terms now �...
Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which now sits at 100% YES , up from 38% a week ago. The confirmed release moved�...
President Trump’s falling out with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is adding strain to US-Europe relations, and the Polymarket contract on US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 has ticked up to 1.2% YES, u...
The Pentagon’s leadership shakeup continues with the ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. The Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 market sits at 6% YES. Market reactio...
A tentative Middle East ceasefire is shaping crude oil market sentiment, with the probability of crude hitting $90 by the end of June declining as traders price in potential de-escalation in the regi�...
Charles Schwab announced the rollout of Schwab Crypto, a spot trading service for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Bitcoin price on April 16 market shows a 99.9% probability of Bitcoin staying above $68,0�...