The Iranian Parliament Vice President refused to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 dropped to 2.6% YES, down from 10% just 24 hour�...
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry arrested four individuals linked to a shooting at a pro-government event in Kerman. The market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 trades at 1.4% YES. ...
The US cancelled envoy travel to Pakistan, marking a pivot from diplomacy to pressure on Iran. The odds of a diplomatic meeting by April 30 now sit at 0.9% YES, down from 22% a week ago. Market re�...
An armed attack at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner has raised security concerns among Trump Administration officials. The odds of a Trump Cabinet resignation before 2027 are now at ? YES. ...
The UK is working closely with the US on security measures as King Charles prepares for his US visit. Crude oil remains over $105 a barrel amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. The crude oil all time high �...
Israel dropped leaflets over Sour in southern Lebanon threatening residents, a move that strains the existing ceasefire. The market for a Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April�...
Israeli President Isaac Herzog is delaying a decision on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pardon request and is instead pushing for a plea deal. The market for Netanyahu being out of power by Jun...
Netanyahu has ordered strikes on Hezbollah in response to ceasefire violations. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 market holds at 100% YES, though active military operations complic�...
Lebanon has released the last of its Hezbollah detainees on minimal bail, and the Polymarket contract for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 sits at 100% YES. Market reaction Both the A�...
Bitcoin is trading at $118,838.03 on April 26, 2026, and the Polymarket question “Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?” sits at near-zero odds with only six days left in the month. Market reacti...