Iran has roughly 12-13 days of storage capacity left as the Strait of Hormuz blockade tightens, while the Polymarket contract on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 has colla�...
South Korea’s central bank is holding rates steady, citing uncertainties from the Middle East conflict. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market sits at 14.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday...
An Axios report describing Trump as “frustrated but realistic” about stalled Iran talks has driven the permanent peace deal by April 30 market down to 1.2% YES, a sharp drop from 10% yesterday. ...
Markets are pricing a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the upcoming FOMC meeting, a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts before the U.S.-Iran conflict e�...
Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said the Strait of Hormuz should not be used as a pressure card, signaling de-escalation in the Iran-US crisis. The odds for crude oil hitting all-...
Viktor Orban’s offer to resign as Fidesz party president after the Hungarian election loss has been turned down by the party leadership, and odds for him being the next leader out before 2027 are ex...
A recording reveals Qatar offered to “look after” ICC prosecutor Karim Khan if he pursued charges against Netanyahu. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market prices this at 5.5% YES. Market reaction...
Mohammad Javad Zarif suggests Iran declare victory and offer nuclear curbs for sanctions relief. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sits at 1.2% YES, down from 10% yesterday. Market reac�...
The USS Rafael Peralta intercepted tanker M/T Stream attempting to reach Iranian ports, while the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 market sits at 0% YES. Market reaction The �...
Odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have crashed to 1.1% YES on Polymarket, down from 7% yesterday and 68% a week ago, as negotiations appear to have broken down with six days left. Market�...